UPDATED: Osun Decides 2026: Hours to Poll, Security Fears and Fresh Political Tensions Shake Race

 

Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) ahead of the August 15, 2026 Osun State governorship election

By Victor Olubiye

With only hours left before Osun voters decide who will govern the state for the next four years, preparations for Saturday’s governorship election are moving into their final stage while fresh security concerns, political allegations and last-minute realignments continue to shape the contest.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says it is ready for the August 15 poll, with 1,906,390 Permanent Voter Cards collected by registered voters out of 2,339,233 registered voters in the state. The figure represents 81.50 per cent of registered voters.

But as electoral officials complete preparations, security agencies assure election personnel of protection, and observers conclude their training, a series of incidents and allegations have kept violence firmly at the centre of public concern.

The election has also drawn the attention of President Bola Tinubu, who has directed INEC and security agencies to ensure that Saturday’s exercise is peaceful, transparent and credible.

“As the people of Osun State head to the polling units to elect who will govern them in the next four years, I call on the Independent National Electoral Commission to ensure orderly conduct of the election,” Tinubu said, according to the statement provided.

“The election must be transparent, free and fair. I urge INEC to ensure the integrity of the process.”

The president also described the election as an opportunity for the institutions responsible for conducting and securing elections to demonstrate their preparedness ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Security takes centre stage

The police have assured NYSC members deployed for the election that they will receive adequate security before, during and after the poll.

The assurance is significant because corps members will form part of the personnel working at polling units, while the state heads into an election already marked by reports of political clashes, killings and allegations of intimidation.

Election observers have also completed training in Osogbo ahead of Saturday’s exercise, preparing them to monitor the process and report developments from polling locations.

INEC has meanwhile commenced the distribution of sensitive electoral materials after a reported delay caused by the late arrival of newly printed ballot papers and other materials from Abuja following the inclusion of the Social Democratic Party on the ballot.

The development means the final logistical preparations are taking place under intense scrutiny.

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Violence fears refuse to go away

The concern over violence has been building for months.

Kimpact Development Initiative previously reported 44 election-related violent incidents between October 2025 and June 2026, resulting in 13 deaths. Its subsequent July assessment put the number of incidents recorded over the preceding 12 months at 56, with 14 fatalities.

The Thamani for Women and Youth Development Initiative has now raised fresh concerns over reported killings, violent attacks, threats, intimidation and the use of religious rhetoric ahead of Saturday's election.

The latest concerns come after a campaign season in which the major political camps have repeatedly traded accusations over violence and intimidation.

One of the most controversial episodes remains the remarks attributed to Senator Francis Fadahunsi, the APC senator representing Osun East, who was captured in a circulated video using the words “kill Accord” while addressing supporters.

Fadahunsi has said the statement referred to defeating Accord politically, not physically harming its members.

Amnesty International, however, said in a statement posted on Thursday that Nigerian authorities had yet to initiate what it described as a genuine process to hold Fadahunsi accountable over the remarks.

The organisation called for respect for human rights before and after the election.

The allegation against Fadahunsi and the disagreement over its meaning remain politically contested and should be distinguished from any established finding of criminal responsibility.

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New allegations deepen the tension

The final stretch has produced other claims that have yet to be fully resolved.

The APC candidate, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, was reportedly targeted when gunmen allegedly opened fire on his campaign convoy on August 12.

Reports said the incident occurred as the convoy returned from the inauguration of APC canvassers for the Ife Federal Constituency.

No death or serious injury was reported in the material available for this report.

However, questions have emerged online about the reported damage to one of the vehicles and whether the incident happened as alleged.

Those online claims remain unverified and should not be treated as evidence that the reported attack was staged. The circumstances require investigation by the appropriate authorities.

Another development has involved APC House of Assembly candidate Babatunde Komolafe Festus.

Komolafe, the APC candidate for Atakumosa East/West State Constituency, was reportedly arrested by Nigerian Navy personnel in Ifewara after a firearm was allegedly found in a vehicle in which he was travelling with supporters.

He was later reportedly released, while the naval commander said to have ordered the arrest was reportedly redeployed.

SaharaReporters attributed the claims about the release and redeployment to sources. There has, however, been no immediate official Nigerian Navy statement confirming the reported redeployment or explaining the circumstances surrounding the politician's release.

The firearm allegation itself therefore remains a matter requiring official clarification.

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Political camps shift before the ballots

While security concerns dominate the final hours, political alignments have also continued to change.

The APM governorship candidate has reportedly stepped down in support of Adeleke, while the Turaki-led faction of the PDP has also backed the incumbent governor.

Separately, former Osun governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has explained why he backed APC candidate Oyebamiji over Adeleke, adding another layer to the political battle around the poll.

These developments come as Adeleke, Oyebamiji and ADC candidate Najeem Salaam remain among the most prominent contenders in the race.

The election has also been affected by the absence of some major parties that contested previous elections and by the wider realignment of political forces ahead of 2027.

What 1.9 million PVCs mean

The number of collected PVCs provides one of the clearest indications of the scale of Saturday's exercise.

INEC said 1,906,390 PVCs had been collected, leaving 432,843 unclaimed out of the state's 2,339,233 registered voters.

That does not mean all collected PVCs will translate into votes, but it shows that millions of registered voters are potentially eligible to participate.

For the candidates, the hours before voting are therefore no longer about winning another rally.

The campaign period is effectively over.

The next contest will take place at polling units.

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The test begins on Saturday

Tinubu's call for a peaceful and credible election, the police assurance to NYSC members and INEC's preparations all point to the same challenge: ensuring that the process voters see at polling units matches the promises made by institutions and political actors before election day.

For observers, the work now moves from training rooms to polling locations.

For security agencies, the challenge is to protect voters, electoral personnel, observers and materials without compromising neutrality.

For political parties, the final responsibility is to ensure that supporters do not turn competition into confrontation.

And for voters, Saturday presents a choice that cannot be made on social media or campaign stages.

They will have to make it at the polling unit.

Osun has spent months preparing for this election. It now has only hours to show whether political competition can give way to a peaceful vote.

By Saturday night, the state will know who has won the race.

The more important question before then is whether Osun can get to that result without another life being lost to political rivalry.