#OsunDecides2026: What Osun’s 2026 Election Teaches Nigeria Ahead of 2027
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| What Osun’s 2026 Election Teaches Nigeria Ahead of 2027 |
As a reporter who witnessed and reported many of the events surrounding the Osun governorship election since 2025, I got to understand that the election was about more than the contest between political parties and candidates. It became a test of political structures, alliances, incumbency, grassroots mobilisation, digital influence and, ultimately, the choices of voters.
The outcome of the election offers several lessons that Nigeria’s political actors may need to consider as the country moves towards the 2027 general elections.
One of the clearest lessons is that political parties matter, but candidates can matter more. Ademola Adeleke’s political journey provided a striking example. He left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for Accord in December 2025 amid the crisis within the party, yet his political realignment did not automatically translate into electoral defeat.
The election also showed that incumbency is an advantage, not a guarantee. While an incumbent may have the benefit of visibility and an established political structure, a determined opposition can still mount a serious challenge.
The All Progressives Congress (APC), meanwhile, experienced intense internal competition before settling on Bola Oyebamiji as its consensus candidate. President Bola Tinubu had also urged the party's aspirants to embrace consensus. The episode highlighted how important internal unity can be to a party's electoral prospects.
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Osun also offered another reminder: political godfathers and heavyweight endorsements cannot personally cast voters' ballots.
Endorsements may influence political conversations and attract attention, but the decision at the polling unit remains with the voter. The same applies to celebrity influence. Popularity can generate visibility, but it does not automatically translate into votes.
Political realignments can also completely change an election. The experience of former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola and his African Democratic Congress (ADC) experiment was instructive. Despite his previous political base, the APC eventually defeated the ADC at Aregbesola's own polling unit.
The election further exposed the gap that can exist between political noise and actual voter strength. Campaign crowds, social media activity, endorsements and political predictions may create an impression of momentum, but the ballot remains the final test.
Peace agreements, too, require more than signatures. Fourteen candidates signed a peace accord before the election, but the wider political environment showed that such agreements have limited value without restraint, compliance and effective enforcement.
Political violence remained a concern. An assessment linked to the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) recorded 73 election-related violent incidents, 54 of them occurring between May and July.
For journalists and voters, the election also reinforced the growing power—and danger—of viral content. Videos can shape public perception within minutes, but their authenticity and context must be established before they are treated as evidence. The controversy surrounding a viral video involving APC Senator Francis Fadahunsi, including questions over whether it was AI-generated, became one example of the difficulty of navigating election information online.
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Technology also proved to be no substitute for a completely flawless electoral process. Reports of glitches and delays involving the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) showed that while technology can strengthen elections, it can also encounter problems that affect voters and election officials.
Vote buying remained another concern, with election observers reporting instances of vote trading during the poll. The continued presence of such practices raises questions about how freely voters can make electoral choices when financial inducements become part of the process.
Beyond the political calculations, however, voters were also looking at issues that affected their everyday lives. Assessments of Adeleke's administration included workers' welfare, infrastructure and education, suggesting that performance and welfare can influence how voters judge an incumbent.
Smaller parties and candidates also demonstrated that they can influence an election even when they are not positioned to win. Two candidates withdrew from the race and endorsed Adeleke shortly before voting, potentially altering the political equation.
For me, having followed the Osun election from the political developments leading up to the poll through the campaign period and voting, one lesson stands out.
The election showed that no political calculation is complete until the voters have spoken.
As Nigeria looks towards 2027, parties may study Osun's alliances, defections, campaigns and internal struggles. Candidates may study what worked and what failed. Political strategists may analyse the numbers and voting patterns.
But ultimately, democracy belongs to the voters—not politicians, influencers, commentators or opinion polls.
The final verdict is delivered at the polling unit.
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